The Rockets are losing the math game

The relationship between NBA basketball and math has long been tenuous.

You’ve seen the debates. The stat nerd vs the hooper. Metrics vs the eye test. It’s as false a dichotomy as one could imagine. To understand basketball, you need both. That will always be the case.

Anyway, the 2025-26 Houston Rockets need a math tutor. Their calculations are off. They’re losing the math game:

And the numbers aren’t lying.

If you’re reading this, you surely know that the Rockets don’t shoot many threes. In fact, their 34.0% three-point frequency ranks dead last in the NBA.

They hit a high percentage of those triples. Houston’s 37.0% three-point shooting ranks sixth. That amounts to 11.3 made threes per game, which lands 24th in the NBA.

That would be fine - if the Rockets hit a high percentage of their twos. This team wasn’t built to overwhelm opponents with three-point shooting. They were built to dominate the offensive glass and win the math game with extra possessions.

They’re still dominating the glass. Houston’s 39.9% Offensive Rebounding Percentage is first in the league by a long shot. It’s just a somewhat moot point when they’re hitting 52.3% of their two-point field goal attempts.

That’s second-last in the NBA.

That’s right. Only the Pacers hit a lower percentage of their twos. This is a gap year for the Pacers. Despite the significance of Fred VanVleet’s absence, the same cannot be said for the Rockets.

So let’s break out the calculators. What can the Rockets do?

They shouldn’t be thinking about increasing their three-point volume too dramatically.

They simply do not have the personnel. Sure, Ime Udoka ought to have a little more faith in Reed Sheppard. He could bolster the three-point volume a bit, but he’s only one NBA sophomore. That won’t meaningfully move the needle.

Above all else, the Rockets need to hit a higher percentage of their twos.

The elephant in the room: Alperen Sengun needs to be more efficient. He just does. He’s hitting 69.7% of his shots between zero-and-three feet. That’s a career high, but it’s still not high enough.

For context, Giannis Antetokounmpo hits 81.1% of his field goals from the same area. Nikola Jokic hits 78.6% of his bunnies.

Am I being unfair by comparing Sengun to the best players in the NBA? OK. Domantas Sabonis hits 69.9% of his attempts from the same range. Newsflash:

The Rockets need Alperen Sengun to be better than Domantas Sabonis.

Holding the young star to a high standard should not be frowned upon. Sengun doesn’t offer much from three-point range, so to be a star playmaker, he needs to make hay at the rim. That’s what the math dictates.

Otherwise, Amen Thompson is hitting 75.0% of his shots between zero-and-three. That’s consistent with last year (75.8%), but his volume is significantly down (36.1% from 42.0%). That’s likely symptomatic of his on-ball work. When Thompson is setting up in the halfcourt, it’s easier for defenses to force him into the midrange. Taking him back off the ball and putting him in a position to cut and attack closeouts could get him back at the rim more often.

That’s about it, as far as my solutions go. I’m no math wizard. Let it be said that the Rockets don’t need to play brutal, D’Antoni-style stat-ball. They do need to find a way to improve on their dreadful two-point efficiency if they’re going to be a low-volume three-point shooting club:

Otherwise, the numbers just aren’t in their favor.