With Evan Mobley signing a five-year, $224 million extension, the third member of the 2021 NBA Draft class to sign a max extension, it’s time to talk about the prospects of restricted free agency for the Houston Rockets, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. But barring any breaking news, it’s unlikely that either player will land a rookie scale max extension in the near future.
What are the prospects of Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green contract extensions?
Is it more of a matter of “if” or “when”?
That also isn’t an indictment on how the Rockets feel about the first two draft picks in their rebuild, it’s just business. Ultimately, I expect both player’s future get hemmed out prior to a 2024-25 offseason standoff such as the one the Cleveland Cavaliers face with Isaac Okoro. Think more so in line with how Tyrese Maxey’s deal got handled.
To start, let’s examine if, rather than when, we can expect resolutions to Sengun and Green’s contract extensions.
It’s my full expectation that Sengun will receive the max contract from the Rockets at some point next summer. If he keeps on pace with the trajectory he has been on, there’s no reason that Houston shouldn’t invest in him with a hefty new deal. While I previously thought he could have inked an extension sooner than later, I believe Rafael Stone and Sengun’s side will hash this out following the 2024-25 season due to roster construction benefits.
Sengun’s $16.3 million cap hold would serve Houston better next offseason rather than signing him now, especially with Dillon Brooks still on a sizable deal, and also with the possibility of Fred VanVleet’s huge number coming off of the books. Regardless, Sengun’s still in line to get a five-year deal in excess of $220 million plus.
As for Green, I think both sides will be content in seeing how this season plays out. Green has already seen his peers, Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes and now Mobley, seal up max extensions this summer, and there’s no doubt in his own mind that he’s also on their level. There should also be the understanding that his level of play hasn’t fully warranted the same amount of faith on Houston’s side, but that also doesn’t mean his earning potential has plateaued.
It’s about consistency at the end of the day, and for Green, he’ll have no better chance to make a good final impression than in what is essentially a contract year. 2024-25 offers Houston the opportunity to further evaluate Green, and it offers Green the chance to raise his value.
Although Green’s future with the Rockets looked rocky at best through most of last year, he was able to salvage a chance at furthering his Dunkstronaut tenure with a sensational March, raising the Rockets to a cautiously optimistic stance on extending him longterm.
For Houston, a lot of their team building, present, past and future, will be dependent on timing and the structure of the new CBA. They say their goal is to retain the Core Six — seven now since we’re counting Reed Sheppard — but signing two max contracts now with the remainder of the Core Six on deck will eventually result in a game of budgeting.
That’s why I don’t disagree with waiting it out, with either player.
Reiterating, I think the Rockets will hand out a max rookie scale extension next summer, but I don’t envision both. Between the two, my money would be on Sengun, but I wouldn’t count Green out quite yet.
There’s still much to be determined on the identity of the team, and if either of these guys can cement themselves as a true 1A option. Plus, with the perception of Houston being a team ready to pounce on whatever superstar becomes available, are we 100 percent sure that Green would be the featured piece going out in any hypothetical trade?
What if Green demonstrates that he is a better fit going forward and Superstar X is a player that doesn’t figure to pair well Sengun? If the price is right, and Sengun holds more trade value, could the Rockets pivot towards keeping Green? Only time will tell.
I also want to emphasize that I’m not implying that the Rockets have to make a decision between Green and Sengun. There’s the third option, the butterflies and rainbows option, which would involve both players exceeding expectations and landing max contracts. However, that would require a major step forward for not only the players, but the team as well.
That option is what I hope for, but I’m not sure it’s the most realistic, nor practical option based off what we have seen over the past three seasons. So as far as contract extension talks go, unless either player agrees to take less than the max, we’ll need to circle back later in the season.
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