There’s a debate to be had about the NBA’s ring culture.
Are the Rockets really NBA Title contenders?
The Western Conference is stacked. Can the Rockets hang?
Some spoilsports say it spoils the sport. They’ll argue that the emphasis on championship pursuits causes fans to lose sight of the forest for the trees. A season should be measured in increments. Winning five more games than expected is worth celebration. Beating a rival on the road is a season high.
It all sounds like what you’d say if your team had no chance to win the NBA championship.
What else is this about? What is the existential impetus if not for ultimate glory? The game is about the NBA Championship. Anything else is, to be blunt, loser talk.
Having established that, the Houston Rockets will not win the NBA championship in 2025-26. It’s simply not going to happen. As far as real contenders go, they’re on the outside looking in:
Especially in a bloody Western Conference.
Rockets can’t survive the Western Front
Before we talk about the competition, let’s talk about the Rockets.
They have two All-Stars. That’s good! They’re deep. That’s good too!
Let’s get more granular. The Rockets are deep: with talented but fundamentally flawed players. It’s always something. Amen Thompson can’t shoot (neither can Sengun). Reed Sheppard can’t defend. Jabari Smith Jr. can’t create. Tari Eason can’t stay healthy.
Look at the Oklahoma City Thunder. Seriously, as a psychological exercise, just try to set aside your fandom for a moment and marvel at the structural integrity of the basketball Death Star they’ve built. Almost everyone can shoot. Everyone (and I do mean everyone) can defend.
Their 118.1 Offensive Rating ranks fourth. Their 106.1 Defensive Rating ranks first by a considerable margin. Unsurprisingly, their 12.1 Net Rating serves to tell the world that, barring catastrophic injury luck, this team’s next NBA title is already portended.
Heading into 2025-26, we knew this. Ostensibly, the Rockets were next in line. They were meant to have a puncher’s chance in case something awful did happen to the Thunder.
It’s been said ad nauseam, but the “something awful” actually happened to the Rockets. Some will parrot the sentiment that “if the Rockets were that reliant on Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, they weren’t going to win an NBA title anyway”. Bad argument. Those are structural pieces. We’ve seen superteams fail to win NBA titles because they didn’t pay attention to the role players you need to assemble a game plan. Every (contending) team has talent. It’s best to have a plan outside of “out-talent the talent”.
The Rockets planned to control the possession battle by minimizing turnovers (VanVleet) and dominating the offensive glass (Adams et al). With VanVleet missing the entire season, their 15.7% Turnover Percentage ranks 27th. They still lead the league in Offensive Rebounding % (39.9%) by a healthy margin, and they probably will throughout the entire year, but that part of their plan is less sound with Adams on the sidelines.
All of which is to say: They aren’t better than the Spurs either. San Antonio’s 6.1 Net Rating paces Houston’s 5.0 mark. Much of that owes to Victor Wembanyama, aka The Bogeyman, aka The Croque-Mitaine. He is nightmare incarnate for everyone who doesn’t live in what I, as a Canadian, understand to be a worse part of Texas than Houston.
(Take that, Tim Duncan!)
How about the Nuggets? That’s where it gets interesting. Their 4.1 Net Rating is worse than Houston’s. The Rockets have a deeper roster. Still, it would be hard to deny that Nikola Jokic is the most effective player between the two squads. Even in the age of parity where teams are trending towards depth, having (by far) the best player in a series is a distinct advantage.
Otherwise, the Rockets are right there. Unfortunately, sitting with two or three teams ahead of you in the conference does not a contender make. Even by Stone’s stunningly frank admission, this is not their year.
How is next year looking?
Rockets need better luck next year
Time will tell.
The Rockets have problems. There is a laundry list of needed improvements:
- Sengun needs to be more efficient. He just does. It’d be nice if the defense were consistent, too, but at least he’s permanently upgraded from “permanently bad status.” Next year, we need to be able to point to one (1) spot on the floor and say “that’s where he butters his bread”.
- Thompson needs more offensive utility. If the on-ball experiment still looks like an experiment, get him cutting, screening, and rolling more frequently.
- Sheppard. I’m not sure what to prescribe. Grow? Is that a fair request? Could he just grow taller? He needs to find a way to survive defensively.
All of these flaws, and yet, the Rockets are fourth in the West without two foundational veterans. With some internal growth and the return of those guys, they could be in the mix for the 2026-27 NBA championship.
What else matters?
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