What we should expect from Jabari Smith Jr. in the 2025-2026 NBA season

When the Rockets found out they were picking third in the 2022 NBA Draft, the large consensus was that Jabari Smith Jr. would be off the board by the time they picked, because he was the most pro-ready prospect in the entire draft and would be likely going number one overall. You know the rest… Orlando pulled the rug from beneath everyone and took Paolo Banchero, and it seemed that the best player in the draft had fallen to the Houston Rockets.

Three NBA seasons into Jabari’s career, there has been glimpses of an elite talent, but even he himself has admitted that his individual career has not gone as he hoped. However, those glimpses of greatness do give Rockets hope. He hasn’t been a total bust. Jabari is the only member of the 2022 draft class to have scored 2700 points and grabbed 1500 rebounds. His production in his limited minutes in the playoffs this season led Rockets fans wondering why Head Coach Ime Udoka didn’t play him more.

In the postseason, he only averaged 20 minutes per game, where he tallied 7.4 points and 3.9 rebounds per game on 50 percent shooting from the field, including 45.5 percent from the three-point line. Given the teams struggles offensively versus the Warriors, more of that type of production would have been a welcome sight. But, as they say, there is no use crying over spilled milk. All the fallout from that series’ failures has already taken place this offseason, and now it’s time to move forward. What should we expect from Jabari this season?

Much debate has been made on whether Jabari should return to the starting lineup in 2025-2026. After-all, with him out, the Houston Rockets were able to continue winning games, maintaining their position as the two-seed in the West, and we saw the emergence of Amen Thompson as a certified defensive star and potential all-around superstar. So replacing Jalen Green with Kevin Durant, Dillion Brooks with Dorian Finney-Smith, and rounding out the starting five with Sengun, VanVleet, and Thompson seems like a great recipe to pick-up where the team left off in the regular season last year. There is also the question of who is the odd man out if Smith does return to the starting lineup?

In this humble old man’s opinion, it would be a mistake to keep Jabari out of the starting lineup. Surrounding Kevin Durant with as many scoring outlets as possible should be the main goal. I expect Jabari Smith Jr. to benefit greatly from the spacing that Durant will provide. Playing 30+ minutes a game, I would expect in his fourth year that Jabari can hover close to a 15 points 9 rebounds per game scorer. Hopefully in the mid to high forties in regard to shooting percentage, high thirties to low forties from the three-point line, and Jabari has to work on getting to the line more often by being physical inside the paint. One of the reasons they have been awful in that regard is their best free-throw shooters never get to the line.

When you add in Jabari’s ability to defend multiple positions, rebound the basketball and even defend the rim a little bit, it just makes too much sense to me to have him in the starting lineup and playing significant minutes. That means there is an odd man out. I think that man is Dorian Finney-Smith. Seems like a no brainer. He and Tari Eason could be a new iteration of the “Terror Twins”, and there will be minutes you might see Amen on the floor with them forming the “Terror Triplets?

Regardless of your opinion of who should start, I’d have a hard time being convinced you extended Jabari, paying him $24 million a year to come off the bench. He is a starting caliber player, and I believe he deserves to start. Jabari has trained with KD the last two summers prior to this one, including with team USA, so there should be bit of a head start on chemistry developed there. At least that’s what Rockets fans hope. If Jabari begins to tap into his peak potential, along with the development of players like Sengun and Thompson, then we are going to be in for one exciting NBA season in H-Town!