Though the Rockets are currently fifth in the Western Conference, they are still considered by most to be true title contenders, and rightfully so. They have the third-highest offensive rating in the NBA and the fifth-highest defensive rating. That is an excellent formula for success. Knowing how stacked the west is, it’s no surprise that one bad week can be the difference between being in the top three and being on the bubble for a play-in tournament.
A closer look at Rockets season reveals something troubling
The Rockets are likely not as good, or as bad as we think
The Rockets are nine games over .500, Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant are both having an All-Star caliber season, and the emergence of Reed Sheppard has been a more than welcome sight to Rockets fans. With all those things being the case, something just feels a little bit off, right? Why on earth can’t the Rockets seem to win a game against the “elite” teams in the league?
It’s only fair to point out that for all teams other than the OKC Thunder, it’s too early to know who will truly be elite by season’s end. That being said, as we approach Christmas, traditionally the designated time that the NBA season “truly begins” and the picture is being formed. What has been revealed so far is that the Houston Rockets are really good, but they are not great… not yet.
The Rockets are just 9-6 against Western Conference teams and 7-1 against the East, but it’s deeper than that. ClutchFans recently pointed out that when you peel back the layers of the Rockets 16-7 record, what you find is the Rockets win the games they are supposed to. 10-2 against teams under .500, 6-0 vs teams between .500 and .600 win percentage. However, the Rockets are 0-5 in games against teams with a .600 winning percentage.
It’s been frustrating as a fan and as someone who covers the team to see. Those five losses came at the hands of the OKC Thunder, Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, and the Denver Nuggets twice. For those of us who watched those games, it cannot be said that the Rockets are not on par with those teams when it comes to talent depth. The largest deficit in those five losses was 11 points to the Spurs. The margins have been tiny. What has been the difference in these games?
The Rockets late-game execution in those games has been abysmal. Silly fouls, careless turnovers, and in some cases, what appears to have been downright poor effort. In the NBA Cup losses to San Antonio and Denver, the Rockets got beaten at their own game on the offensive boards in the fourth quarter. In the season opener against the Thunder, missed free throws down the stretch made the difference. In the Pistons game, it was bad offensive spacing and turnovers, and as much as Rockets fans would love to blame the referees for the most recent Denver loss, and they were bad, the Rockets had opportunities to win that game as well if they would have executed better down the stretch offensively and defensively.
These issues begin and end with Alperen Sengun. While he boasts great clutch shooting percentages, in these critical games against the best in the west, he has had bad moments. Statistically, Alperen Sengun was a monster against the Nuggets on Monday… until you realize his 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists were good enough for the worst plus/minus (-6) of every player on the court that day. His four fouls in the fourth quarter were legit fouls, and they were lazy and silly fouls. Kevin Durant can’t be absolved from blame. While he has also made big shots in these games, but he has also made huge turnovers and missed a couple of free-throws that would have made the difference.
The good news is all of this is fixable. It just needs to get fixed. The Rockets will need to start winning some of these games. When the dust settles, all of the top Western Conference teams are going to be within a few games one another and head-to-head matches will surely factor in. Late game execution is something that comes with experience, and the positive is the Rockets have plenty of film on what not to do. The question is, can they figure it out with the players on the roster, or do they need help?
Count this writer as one who is optimistic that this team can get it together. Why am I optimistic? Well for one, I believe Ime Udoka will demand it. In addition to that, I know chemistry takes time, and the Rockets still have much to figure out. They haven’t even begun to have to work in the likes of a healthy Tari Eason or Dorian Finney-Smith. Lastly, I guess in reality I am a chronic optimist. I refuse to write this team off because of an early season trend of losing close games to really good teams and I don’t think you should either. It could be worse. We have seen worse. I think we should take a deep breath and reconvene at the All-Star Break, my beloved TDS faithful. Or… perhaps at the trade deadline?
